People seem to take joy in bashing my predictions and making sure to point out when I am wrong so hopefully my caucus predictions will not give any of you any room to embarrass me.
So here they are my 2008 Iowa Caucus Predictions (I am only doing the top three):
Democrats:
1) Barrack Obama
2) Hillary Clinton
3) John "Don't Sue Me Bro" Edwards
Everyone loves The Big O. He has put a ton of faith in young people coming out to caucus in order for him to win. If they come out...he will win HUGE. If they don't, I still think he can win, but by a smaller margin. Hillary has the support from old white women. I think Iowa has a lot of them...so she will have a strong showing. "Don't Sue Me Bro" has the support of organized crime labor and they are pretty strong in Iowa. Although he does not have much money to go further so he is pretty much "four yellows, one red, TOAST" after Iowa.
Republicans:
1) Mitt Romney
2) Mike "Hypocracy" Huckabee
3) John McCain
I feel that Fred Thompson probably will not break the top three and will probably be forced to drop out. He is pretty good friends with John McCain...so conventional wisdom is that he will drop out and support McCain if he does not finish in the top three. Mitt has one of the best organizations in Iowa and I think that will help him to beat out The Huck (I was watching the news and they were showing The Huck's campaign and it was filled mainly with kids...they can't vote...hopefully he knows that). John McCain can do a lot for his chances if he is able to finish third. He has not spent much time in Iowa and he can bolster his chances in New Hampshire next week with a strong third place finish. Ron Paul is Ron Paul...his homemade yard signs can surprise us I guess.
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There ya go...my predictions (with a little commentary). You can take them to the bank. If you are as huge a political nerd as I am tune into C-SPAN (for the Democratic caucus) and C-SPAN 2 (for the Republican caucus) around 6:30pm (Central) for live coverage of an actual caucus. You can also watch the news networks if you want to it with analysis. My favorite would be FoxNews with Brit Hume they seem to have the best political group on TV. However MSNBC is pretty good too (although a little too liberal, but it is watchable).
