THE 2008 Iowa Caucus

The 2008 Iowa Caucus is in the history book...and it was somewhat historic. Barack Obama crushed everyone else. He garnered 8% more than Don't Sue Me Bro and 9% more than Hillary. There is no other way to spin this than to say that Obama ran away with it. He is the favorite going into New Hampshire and if I had to bet...he will win the nomination. If anyone heard his victory speech last night...you know it was pretty impressive. I will never vote for him, but he sounded like a leader and like someone who knew that he was about to become the first African-American Presidential Candidate for a major party. If the enthusiasm and energy that people had in Iowa for Obama is any indication of the rest of the country...stick a fork in Hillary. Hillary's speech was not good. She was spinning way too hard and was way to excited to be finishing third. Don't Sue Me Bro sounded angry and bitter...and probably was contemplating suing someone...maybe the voters of Iowa for not voting for him.

On the Republican side it is a little more interesting. The Huck beat Mitt and beat him pretty good. Fred took third with John McCain right behind and Crazy Uncle Ron Paul taking the 5th spot with 10%. I thought it would be close but the Evangelical voters in Iowa got their church vans loaded up and went to caucus. 60% (in 2000 40%) of the Republican voters last night identified themselves as Evangelical or "born again" who not surprisingly voted for the Baptist preacher. They also said it was very important or somewhat important that the candidate share their religious views. That does not bode well for Mitt as he goes forward.

What makes this race a little different from the Democrats is that it isn't over yet. John McCain finished a "strong" fourth, coupled with a wounded Mitt means that he has a shot at taking New Hampshire come Tuesday. The Huck obviously rides a wave of momentum into New Hampshire. However, he needs to re-tool his message because New Hampshire is a little more secular than Iowa. He has to appeal to people that don't necessarily want a preacher President. Mitt has millions upon millions of dollars...so he isn't finished until he gets tired of writing checks. Fred Thompson is still in it, although just by a thread. He needs chaos in the race until South Carolina where he can be an alternative conservative to The Huck (and I hope people realize that they need an alternative). As far as Rudy goes...he does not have a shot until the big states vote on Febuary 5th...so basically he needs chaos as well.

Seeing how well my predictions are going so far, I will continue to make a fool out of myself:

Democrats:

Barack Obama becomes the nominee

Republicans:

Mitt or John McCain becomes the nominee and I can continue to vote Republican

President in 2009:

???? Not ready to go that far