Meteorology: Science for Lazy People

Since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, annual hurricane predictions have been receiving a good amount of attention. Be it from the global warming crowd, who point to predictions of more frequent and more severe storms as proof of global warming; or from various media outlets who like to scare the bejeezes out of people living within 30 miles of an ocean coastline.

Between you and me, I think it's a conspiracy perpetuated by Lowe's and Home Depot because as soon as some yahoo on The Weather Chanel says "increased hurricane activity" you know there's a mad rush on plywood at the local home improvement store.

Conspiracy theories aside, I have found a way to have the respect and prestige that comes with being a "scientist" while not having to worry about pesky details like being right or providing useful information - become a meteorologist. I don't know why I didn't think of this before - look at some clouds, tell people when it's about to rain, point at colors on a radar map. It's so easy.

According to this story from the AP, meteorology has progressed to the point where they are now able to "pretty accurately predict an above- or below-average season, even predict the likelihood a major storm will hit SOMEWHERE along the U.S. coast." Wow. I am impressed. Just so we're all on the same page - we have a 50% chance of being right when it comes to an above average or below average season, and they're even willing to say that a storm may hit somewhere along the 2,000+ miles of Atlantic coastline.

And when they're wrong? No big deal. In fact, in 2005, one particular prediction called for 15 named storms, 8 of those hurricanes. What we got was a record 28 storms with 15 becoming hurricanes, including one little doozy called Katrina.

I know this sounds like I'm making fun of meteorologists (and to a certain extent, I am). But the main point here is that despite the vast technological advances over the past 100 years, we still can't predict with any amount of certainty what the weather is going to do more than 72 hours out.

The earth's climate is an incredibly complex system that mankind does not fully comprehend. And to claim that we are doing damage to this system without fully understanding how it works in the first place is ignorant and short-sighted. Should we protect the environment? Absolutely. Should we adopt policies that are going to grind our economy to a halt and cause mass starvation across the globe because the internal combustion engine may or may not raise the level of the ocean 1 or 2 millimeters? We might want to think a little longer about that.

Based on my extensive research (watching The Discovery Chanel), I have concluded that the earth's climate has constantly changed and that it will continue to constantly change with or without human impact. It's naive to think we can stop it.

And that concludes the science lesson for this Monday.